from the most optimistic to the most negative, here are 5 scenarios to end the crisis

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from the most optimistic to the most negative, here are 5 scenarios to end the crisis


<span class = "image" data-attrib = "AFP" data-caption = "Antoine Flahault, professor of public health at the University of Geneva, delivers his scenarios for the JDD to get out of the crisis. According to him, this will depend on the "level of immunity of the population".

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© AFP
Antoine Flahault, professor of public health at the University of Geneva, delivers his scenarios for the JDD to get out of the crisis. According to him, this will depend on the “level of immunity of the population”.


“So many people confined to entire countries, it is unheard of. Deconfinement is therefore a major unknown. Before scaffolding scenarios of exit from this Chinese mass distancing, it is necessary to be able to answer two questions The coronavirus will he braking summer? And what is the immunity of the population? The mist surrounding the Chinese figures prevents us from knowing there. To estimate it in Europe, we launch a large survey using blood tests in the canton of Geneva, on a representative sample of the population, such as a repeated survey for eight consecutive weeks.

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In a first scenario, spring and summer slow the spread of the coronavirus, and our surveys indicate a small percentage of people who contracted it this winter. In this case, this will help us to support the at least partial lifting of the deconfinement, but the risk of resurgence in the fall will remain great and it will be advisable to use the summer respite to better prepare for it this time.

Personalized distinctions

Second scenario : same summer braking hypothesis, but the results of seroprevalence surveys indicate a high percentage of acquired immunity, greater than 50% of the population. General relief, we can quickly deconfine and celebrate liberation, because the future will be peaceful and this crisis behind us.

Third scenario: no seasonal braking, but surveys indicate that more than half of the population has encountered coronavirus. The end of the epidemic would then also be near and allow us to enjoy the summer without worrying about tomorrow.

A combination of methods to allow hospitals to avoid congestion

Our fourth scenariois not the most optimistic: the virus is not sensitive to summer, and surveys show that immunity remains low in the population, less than 5% or 10%. This would mean that we would not be done with this pandemic and that it could continue during the fall and winter, that is, until 60% to 70% of the population has not been reached. In such a scenario, as in the first, personalized measures of social distancing should be put in place without delay, as in Singapore or Taiwan: massive tests to identify the virus, search for all those who have been in contact with the positive, isolation of all infected people.

Read also – EXCLUSIVE. How confinement affects the French

These measures should allow a progressive deconfinement of the rest of the population while maintaining the closure of schools and the prohibition of large gatherings. This combination of methods would allow hospitals to avoid congestion, and the economy to suffer less than during the response to the first wave, implemented in an emergency.

We also need to consider a fifth scenario, linked to a more complex epidemiological situation. Investigations could reveal an important level of immunity in certain territories of the country, for example in Oise, Haut-Rhin or Île-de-France, where the vice would then be easier to loosen without fear of a resurgence. But elsewhere, where the seroprevalence levels are very low (5 to 10%), it would be more complicated to deconfine without risk, and other waves would be feared. ”

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