The Coordinated Institute of Governance and Applied Economics has analyzed how the world can be after the coronavirus and has detected some trends that, “although at this moment they are only in the phase of minimal perception”, can give an idea of what scenarios will have to be faced in the medium term.
The Coordinate Institute, through the analysis group of options to avoid economic collapse, shows that the impact of Covid-19 is being of such magnitude that there is little doubt that it will transform the social world in the medium term , political and economic.
“We are going to live”, he points out, “substantial changes that will lead us inexorably to new conceptions of the elements of power and sovereignty of States, with a completely new interpretation of classic concepts, defense, security, such as biopower or digital power, now they are going to connect even more ».
It heralds changes in the financial and stock market system, “a space in which the concept of panic prevails freely and forces interventions by public money and one can only hope for radical changes in the geopolitical scenario, with new points of friction between superpowers such as China and the United States “or rethinking of supranational figures from the most global ones such as the UN, the IMF, the World Bank and” the highly questioned WHO “, to regional cooperation spaces such as the EU or Mercosur,” when borders reappear, and populism and nationalism fish in troubled waters ».
Jesus Sanchez Lambas, executive vice president of the Coordinate Institute, said that “the world will not be the same after the pandemic. It is necessary to begin to analyze what those changes are going to be like, to define with maximum precision the scenarios of the future. We are facing risks that we hardly knew about and we have to equip ourselves with new tools to guarantee our safety at all levels. This analysis of the Coordinate Institute is a first step in that direction and only seeks to initiate a broad debate that will open windows to new realities and new solutions. ”
REINVENTING FINANCIAL MARKETS
The entity indicates that the financial markets will have to be “reinvented”. “The world of money, the stock markets and investment, panicked in the first minute of the coronavirus crisis, exacerbating the overreaction of what happened in 2008, as if nothing had been learned.”
He maintains that they have shown “their extreme weakness” and the need for governments and central banks to come to “plug the holes in the system.” For this reason, it considers that economic interventionism, with its associated rescue plans, is reinforced as an element of surveillance and control of the global financial system.
Another element that he points to is digitization, since he affirms that this health crisis is not something exceptional and “it will be repeated in the coming years in unpredictable and different ways. Confinement measures may become part of our catalog of customs and habits in the near future ».
For this reason, he points out that digitization, as an essential tool in any remote working process, will be decisive in maintaining productive capacity at many levels. Even eminently face-to-face activities are going to have to find their own digitization process to survive. “Operating remotely will be our usual work environment.”
It also highlights the importance of national production in strategic sectors, since “the wild relocation of the last decades has meant that in crisis situations it is necessary to queue up to obtain essential supplies from very few suppliers”.
He relates that the concept of strategic reserves, which was only limited to the energy world, will expand to the technological and biotechnological sectors and will force industrial control of certain activities to guarantee the safety of all citizens, with a tendency towards self-sufficient models, where the sector Primary has become strategic.
KNOWLEDGE AND DATA
Knowledge is another variable that adds to this list of trends. The Coordinates Institute argues that the coronavirus has generated this pandemic because “it has caught everyone off guard; and it has done it, basically, because nobody knew anything about how it was able to expand and generate so much damage ».
For this reason, he points out that «having that knowledge has suddenly become strategic. Global knowledge, covering the entire spectrum of data associated with the pandemic, from virus biology itself to the socio-health structure of the population. Once again the data will be essential and its control and management will generate a new type of intelligence essential for the life of any nation.
He adds that the control of the data of health statistics, of the data that is on the health card of any citizen, of scientific research, of social stratification, of consumption, of the financial system, will undergo drastic intervention by Public authorities, convinced that whoever controls their data controls their sovereignty, faced the debate between personal data protection systems and the security of all.
Regarding borders, he reports that supranational structures, such as the European Union, show their weaknesses in these crises and reinforces the return of physical borders and the search for individual solutions by each nation-state, including regions and cities. .
“Or the EU”, he adds, “endows itself with immediate action instruments assumed by all or runs the risk of becoming a stagnant bureaucratic structure of compromised utility, and not so long-term disappearing turned into a mere structure of trade and tariffs, recovering the surpassed adjective of economic union ”.
In addition, he warns that internal barriers can also be activated in the face of these crises and internal cohesion in countries such as Spain, Belgium, Hungary, and other Baltic republics, can be greatly affected, where it can be perceived that the problem is no longer Brussels but Madrid , aggravated in other nations and in these by populist movements, both left and right, that find in social suffering their ideal breeding ground
Finally, he foresees that we will witness a ‘reinvention’ of the cold war. “The world has witnessed, perplexed, the confrontation between China and the United States with this exchange of reproaches about Chinese viruses or US military viruses, which allows us to venture that a new fight between great powers is looming, in a greening cold war.”
Likewise, he emphasizes that China, displaced towards the east, «which appeared to the entire world as the culprit for this world health catastrophe, is reinventing its discourse and no longer shows itself as part of the problem but part of the solution. His ‘mask diplomacy’, bringing health aid everywhere, is giving him a new image that contrasts with that displayed by Trump and his walls. ”
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