The CDC warns of a further dramatic worsening of the corona crisis in the United States. According to the internal forecast, the number of daily new infections could increase eight-fold to 200,000 by the beginning of June, as reported by the “New York Times” and “Washington Post” on Monday. The number of deaths recorded every day could therefore rise significantly to around 3,000.
In absolute terms, the United States is already by far the hardest hit country in the world by the pandemic. The forecast that has now become known means that the current number of approximately 69,000 officially recorded corona deaths in the USA would double in the next few months. The prognosis is therefore darker than that of the Corona crisis team created by President Donald Trump.
The White House tried to put the relevance of the CDC forecast into perspective. It was an “internal” document that was not coordinated with other authorities and was not submitted to the crisis team. Trump admitted on Sunday that up to 100,000 people in the U.S. could fall victim to the pandemic. Trump recently predicted around 60,000 casualties – a number that has now been significantly exceeded.
A calculation model updated on Monday (local time) by the IHME Institute at the University of Washington in Seattle assumes that the number of deaths in the United States will increase from the current almost 69,000 by the end of the month to around 110,000. Only from the end of July should the number of victims stabilize at around 134,000. Just a few weeks ago, the university assumed that a plateau would be reached in the height of summer with around 90,000 deaths. Trump’s government has used the model several times for its own forecasts.
According to IHME, mobility is the most important factor in the spread of the virus. An influence is also attributed to population density and test capacities. “An increase in mobility leads to an increase in mortality”, health scientist Ali Mokdad from IHME teaches “CNN“The knowledge of the model to the point.
Relaxation of restrictions too quickly
According to the reports, the CDC bases its sinister forecast on the fact that some states and districts have not acted aggressively enough against the spread of the new virus or have progressed too quickly with the loosening of restrictions. The responsibility for the anti-corona measures in the USA is largely in the hands of the regional and local authorities.
Trump himself is pushing for the return to normality and the revival of the US economy as quickly as possible in the 2020 election year. His government has presented a three-stage plan for this, but it is only a recommendation. The states handle these guidelines very differently.
In the most populous US state of California, the restrictions are to be loosened somewhat from Friday. Governor Gavin Newsom announced that smaller shops such as bookstores, toy or flower shops should reopen. Factories and logistics companies can also start operating again.
Across the United States, 1,015 new coronavirus deaths were recorded on Monday. After all, this was a small ray of hope: it was the lowest number of newly registered fatalities since the beginning of April. The number of official cases of infection rose to more than 1.18 million, according to the Johns Hopkins University. Almost 70,000 people died as a result of Covid-19.
Trump is concerned about his re-election
Trump plans to visit a manufacturing facility in Phoenix, Arizona, USA on Tuesday that produces medical supplies. It is the President’s first major trip in weeks amid the corona pandemic. The President had hardly left the White House recently. Six months before the presidential election and in view of declining voter favor, he is looking for proximity to voters again and soon wants to travel to the state of Ohio.
Classic campaign events are currently not possible due to the corona crisis. Both Arizona and Ohio are so-called swing states – they could play an important role in the November 3 presidential election because the Democratic Party is expecting a close race between Trump and his designated challenger Joe Biden.