One of the key points of the daily press conference given by the director of the Center for Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES), Fernando Simón, have been the first results of the seroprevalence study, presented late yesterday afternoon. According to the preliminary conclusions of the study, only 5% of Spaniards has overcome the disease, which means around 2.3 million citizens.
For Simon, the results were somewhat expected and to some extent, they are good news. “If we had had much higher incidences, that would have implied that the case fatality, the number of people affected and the collapse of the health systems would have been much greater,” he explained. However, they imply that we are far removed from the natural protection that the famous herd immunity would have implied.
The reality is that the study has shown that the virus case fatality rate is higher than expected: cause one deceased for every 100 infected. On the other hand, Simón has recognized that the vast majority of cases have gone undetected. “It is true that we have barely detected around 10% of the total number of cases in Spain,” he explained.
No group immunity
When asked about what implies that 95% of the population remains susceptible to the virusSimón explained that geographic variability plays no role. While the Community of Madrid registers around 11.3% immunity, regions like Galicia barely reach 3%. However, when registering regrowths, none of the autonomies have rates equivalent to 60%, the minimum necessary for the famous group immunity.
“Of course, if we had the entire population vaccinated, regrowth would be impossible, but in the meantime, a possible regrowth is not going to depend on the seroprevalence rate, but on how cautious we all are when it comes to maintaining security measures” , he explained, insisting that the individual responsibility of the citizenry and carry out a gradual de-escalation is essential to avoid major rebounds.