those who should stay, those who are threatened, those who could enter government

those who should stay, those who are threatened, those who could enter government

<span class = "image" data-attrib = "Ludovic Marin / AFP" data-caption = "As the deadline for the reshuffle approaches, rumors and speculation are rife. But trends are emerging.

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© Ludovic Marin / AFP
As the deadline for the reshuffle approaches, rumors and speculation are rife. But trends are emerging.

There is tension in the air. A minister testified: “It is not super comfortable.” On the eve of the first major reshuffle of the Macron era, the concern is palpable and the files are at a standstill. “We are all waiting,” said the member of the government. Who will stay? To be promoted? Losing your job? Detailed review.

Those who should stay

The Minister of Solidarity and Health, Olivier Véran, has little to worry about: appointed in extremis in February, a month before entry into force of containment, he comes out comforted. According to an influential MP, his maintenance “is obvious”: “He has demonstrated his technical skills, he knows how to speak to the French, with pedagogy and without any arrogance. He has a political sense. It is clearly an asset. “

The Minister of National Education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, is also not disowned, even if its star has turned slightly in recent months. “It is not really his fault but he is full in the face, notes a deputy. I was struck by the change, when he was worshiped a few weeks ago.” Emmanuel Macron however, retains all his trust. A regular at the Élysée says: “It’s the darling.”

The very restless Secretary of State for Equality between women and men, Marlène Schiappa, “is going to have a promotion,” believes a senior official. But another nuance: “She embodies her subject in such an iconic way that I hardly see her changing.”

Paradoxically, the only two heavyweights of the government given as possible successors of Edouard Philippe to Matignon, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno LeMaire, and that of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Yves LeDrian, are almost more likely to remain in their jobs. Diagnosis of a relative of Macron: “There is a need for stability in Bercy. LeMaire manages well. Let him stay there.” He added: “I think he has understood that he will not be Prime Minister.”

Casting, however, is not the only criterion. “The challenge is to redraw the perimeters to manage the crisis that is opening,” notes a historical macronist. Some advocate separating the Ministry of Health – which has a lot to do – from that of Solidarity to forge a large portfolio responsible for dealing with the social crisis. The Minister of Action and Public Accounts, Gérald Darmanin, very much in court, would be happy there. One of the Head of State’s friends is certain of this: “Darmanin wants a large ministry combining work and social affairs. He will have it.”

Those who should be thanked

Corollary to the previous point: the Minister of Labor, Muriel Pénicaud, seems seriously threatened. “She does not print, analyzes a deputy. And if we want a social shift, not sure that it is she who embodies it best.”

Same observation for Elisabeth Borne, Minister of the Ecological and Inclusive Transition: “It cannot exist. There is a problem of communication, of substance, of adjustment, whereas this year we should have done a lot of things …”

But it is especially among the so-called “sovereign” ministers that the shoe pinches. If that of the Armies, Florence Parly, “very appreciated”, according to a close friend of Macron, does not seem disputed, those of the Interior and Justice, them, seem condemned. Custody of the seals, Nicole Belloubet, “broke the link with the magistrates and the liberal professions”, deplores a close friend of the President. “She lived,” said another.

As for his colleague from the Interior, Christophe Castaner, more than ever weakened by the movement against police violence and the rejection it inspires in its troops, it is “at the end of the cycle” and will surely not remain at Place Beauvau after the reshuffle. Not certain either that his status as a faithful head of state guarantees him a continuation of another ministerial function.

Read also – Christophe Castaner’s dirty week

As Sibeth Ndiaye, who as spokesperson for the coronavirus crisis – a “mission almost impossible”, according to this close -, took blows. “The President will not let her go but he may not leave her at his post,” said a visitor to the Palace.

The Minister in greatest difficulty, however, is that of Culture, Franck Riester. “He is going to take a bullet,” certifies a member of the first presidential circle. A deputy, however, warns: “There is a question of political balance with Agir, the party of Riester. It is necessary to be careful not to demote it.”

Those who could make their entrance

Because Emmanuel Macron, with this reshuffle, also aims to forge new alliances. One of his friends summarizes: “The challenge is to inject new blood into his team and above all to continue to enlarge the majority: after, successively, the MoDem, Act, the radicals and then the UDI, it is necessary persevere!” The catchment areas, for the Head of State, remain the same. On the right, Emmanuel Macron could be tempted, too, to poach parliamentarians or Macron-compatible mayors such as Christophe Béchu (Angers), Jean-Luc Moudenc (Toulouse) and Christian Estrosi (Nice).

The deputy Guillaume Larrivé and the European deputy Geoffroy Didier have already said all the good they thought of the national union. The president of the LR group in the Assembly, Damien Abad, has been closely watched by his camp since he welcomed the intervention of the head of state on April 13. However, the former minister (LR) Brice Hortefeux is doubtful: “Macron wants to go big game fishing, but he will only catch sardines”, he predicts.

On the left, we readily quote the socialist Jérôme Guedj, close to Véran. As for the hypothesis of a return of Manuel Valls, a relative of Emmanuel Macron recently asked him about this. President’s Response: “Never.”

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Video: The Elysée denies that Emmanuel Macron mentioned a resignation (Euronews)



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