an epidemiologist predicts when the second peak of the epidemic will take place in France

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an epidemiologist predicts when the second peak of the epidemic will take place in France




Covid-19: an epidemiologist predicts when the second peak of the epidemic in France will take place


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Covid-19: an epidemiologist predicts when the second peak of the epidemic in France will take place

Faced with the increase in the number of emergency room visits, new hospitalizations, intensive care admissions but also deaths, epidemiologist Catherine Hill, interviewed by franceinfo, fears a second peak of the epidemic in seven to eight weeks.

“The viral circulation continues its progression leading to a clear degradation”. This is the observation made by Public Health France in its epidemiological update of September 17 about the situation in France. A resumption of the epidemic which is rightly worrying, because Santé Publique France notes an increase in all indicators monitoring of the epidemic, namely emergency room visits, new hospitalizations, intensive care admissions but also deaths.

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Covid-19: 600 intensive care admissions per day in 7 to 8 weeks?

A phenomenon that risks becoming even more widespread, as explained in franceinfo epidemiologist and biostatistician Catherine Hill. Regarding the number of intensive care admissions, she explains that“We are now at 73 per day, but I think we will be at 200 per day in a few weeks and 600 per day in seven to eight weeks”. According to this specialist, the situation to come in November could thus be similar to that encountered during the peak of the epidemic.

This observation is shared by the World Health Organization: in Europe, “it will become harder. In October, in November, we will see a mortality higher”, said Hans Kluge, director of the European branch of the WHO.

A scenario already predicted by the scientific Council last July: “It is not a certainty and I hope that we will be wrong, but a lot of elements suggest that there could be a return of the virus to Europe by the end of October or the month of November”, then declared Jean-François Delfraissy, who is the president, to AFP.

Covid-19: the need to isolate patients faster

To avoid a catastrophic situation in the coming weeks, Catherine Hill explains that it is necessary toisolate contaminated people as quickly as possible. And to do this, it is essential to review the strategy of screening : “You have to reserve the tests PCR to people who are symptomatic, to their contacts and to hospital staff, to people who work in nursing homes, priority populations “, she explains. What about the rest of the population? The specialist suggests offering antigenic tests, which allow rapid results and therefore earlier isolation.

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