RIO. Despite signs of recovery in economic activity in recent weeks, doubts still remain about the strength of the labor market, which is increasingly occupied by informal activities. It is this post-covid scenario that will be debated tomorrow, September 28, by researchers from the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Ibre / FGV) during the 3rd Conjuncture Analysis Seminar. The event, which takes place every quarter and this time will be done over the internet, is organized in partnership with Estadão.
One of the seminar speakers, the researcher Silvia Matos, coordinator of Ibre / FGV Macro Bulletin, says that after the “bottoming out” in April and May the economy started to react from the end of the second quarter. And this recovery, according to her, is being faster than initially imagined.
In the last few months, there has been a process of upward revisions to the projections on the performance of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year. Estimates still point to the biggest annual contraction in the country’s history, but they have already been worse. The estimate of Ibre / FGV, which came to project a fall of 6.4% in the “peak of the shock”, is now a fall of 5.3%.
“There was unprecedented action by the policy,” said Silvia, referring to the measures taken by the government to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis, with emphasis on the R $ 600 emergency aid paid to informal and unemployed workers.
On the other hand, there are uncertainties about the continuation of the resumption beyond the end of this year. Concerns turn to the job market, according to the Ibre / FGV researcher. This is because the same inequality that marks the recovery process – with industry and commerce resuming faster than services and investments – affects workers.
Activities with greater difficulty in recovery, such as services provided to families, demand less qualified jobs and are traditionally those that employ most informal workers. The sectors that have been driving the recovery are more intensive in technology or in the use of remote work. According to Silvia, workers with schooling of 15 years or more were virtually unaffected. “The question is: how will informal people relocate in the job market?”, She asks.
Registration for the seminar, which starts at 10 am, can be made on the website https://evento.fgv.br/iiianaliseconjuntural. In addition to Silvia, the event will be attended by FGV economists Armando Castelar and José Júlio Senna. The mediation will be carried out by journalist Adriana Fernandes, special reporter for Estadão.