Today, Brazil reaches its 168th consecutive day with the daily moving average of deaths from covid-19 above 300 deaths, a value reached by only ten countries – and stopped quickly by most of them. Here, we reached that mark on April 28 and, since then, we have never left that level. The only country worse off than ours is the United States, who registered similar numbers a month earlier and still maintain high rates of deaths from the disease.
THE Estadão he sought out specialists to understand how such a long curve of deaths and social isolation can disrupt people’s lives in emotional, social and economic aspects. Raul Borges Guimarães, professor of Geography at Unesp, has studied the pandemic since its beginning and recalls that a first point to consider is the demographic characteristic of Brazil and the USA, especially where there is a concentration of people. “There are countries populated as Japan e South Korea who developed a surveillance and control system based on mass testing and monitoring ”, he says. “This did not happen in Brazil, which was one of the countries with the lowest percentage of tests. We were walking blindly in the pandemic. ”
Guimarães notes that among the ten countries that surpassed the mark of 300 daily deaths in the moving average are populous nations with megacities, such as Nova York, Sao Paulo e New Delhi. “These metropolises played a very big role in spreading the disease. In Europe, on the other hand, there is a large urban network. Viral dissemination takes two fundamental components of the territory into account: population density and urban mobility, with people living in the same space. ”
In South America, Argentina e Colombia they also reached that barrier of 300 daily deaths. The first country reached that level on September 22 and is still trying to leave, while the second had more expressive growth on July 30, but has already seen the numbers drop 37 days later.
Mexico e India broke the 300 deaths on the moving average on May 23 and June 11, respectively, and have yet to make it out. “Together with Brazil and the USA, they are continental countries, of great territorial extension”, explains Guimarães. But, according to him, it is not possible to compare with the China, with 1.4 billion inhabitants and large extension, where the pandemic was controlled in about two months. “There they used an impractical surveillance system in democratic countries, with the deprivation of individual freedoms.”
With a quarantine dragging on for almost seven months, Brazil still has a moving average close to 600 deaths per day, considered high compared to the rest of the world. “No country has had a longer quarantine period than ours. There is a very high level and a situation in which people are used to the pandemic, as if it were a good thing. And it isn’t! ”Says Nelson Marconi, professor and coordinator of the Center for the Study of New Developmentalism at the São Paulo School of Business Administration at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). “Staying in a plateau situation for so long makes it difficult to return to activities. I don’t believe you have to let go, what should have been done was strict control from the start. ”
Marconi believes that, after seven months of the pandemic, the population and the medical community already know the virus better and know how to fight it, but stresses that this is still a learning process. “We have a situation in which we do not get out of the pandemic, nor return to normal. If we had made a more intensive strategy in the beginning, now we could be with R (level of transmission, contagion and deaths) much lower, ”he continues. “You can’t be quarantined for six months. There is also no major resumption of employment due to this. ”
According to the researcher in neuropsychology Paulo Sérgio Boggio, from Mackenzie, the emotional aspect should still have effects in the post-pandemic, mainly due to the prolonged time of social detachment. “The need for contact is increasing and a series of elements that help us to regulate emotions and seek ways to alleviate mental suffering are decreasing”, he observes.
He further explains that the lack of interaction goes against the nature of humans, who are a highly social species. Thus, prolonged isolation decreases our ability to take care of mental health and causes different effects in children, adolescents, adults and the elderly, such as increased nightmares. “When we lose the perception of control, there is a very big impact that takes away the possibility of solving problems.”
See below the situation of each country that reached the moving average of 300 daily deaths during the new coronavirus pandemic:
They recorded the first moving average above 300 deaths on March 28, and since then, the numbers have not dropped – with the highest death record, 2,256, occurring after 25 days.
It totaled more than 1,000 daily deaths on May 19, however the moving average of more than 300 deaths per day started on 4/28. The peak occurred after three months, with a daily moving average of 1,074.
On September 7, India overtook Brazil and became the second country with the highest number of cases in the world. The government imposed confinement in early March and reopened in June.
It is the ninth country with the highest number of cases of covid-19 and, despite not having reached the daily moving average of 1000 deaths, the country has registered more than 300 deaths by covid-19 since May 23.
He suffered the most intense days of the pandemic between April 1 and May 21, a period in which there were more than 300 daily deaths, reaching a peak of 943 deaths 1 after two weeks.
Epicenter of the pandemic earlier this year, Italy was the first European country to announce the lockdown. On March 18, there was the first record of more than 300 daily deaths in the moving average.
The pandemic accelerated between March 30 and May 3, when the country recorded a daily moving average of more than 300 deaths, reaching a peak of 975 deaths after 10 days.
On March 30, it registered more than 300 daily deaths in the moving average, reaching a peak of 975 deaths after 11 days. As soon as the numbers started to rise, the government imposed a lockdown.
In July, it reached 300 daily deaths. The numbers remained constant until September 5, when they started to fall.
The country with the most extensive isolation measures in the world had the first record of 300 deaths on September 22.