Energy analysts want to see the regulation of the new Gas plan to give their opinion. From the announcements of this Thursday, they emerge inconsistencies in the amount of grants In relation to those previously announced, little detail on how the calculations of the announced numbers were made and greater pressure on gas distributors.
The Ministry of Energy stated that the fiscal cost of this new plan is US $ 1,491 million. However, in the Budget bill, the subsidies for gas production and the Gas plan were around the US $ 850 million. It is not clear what the final number will be next year.
The government justified the stimulus to avoid a further decline in production. He drew up crash scenarios in that sense. But no numbers how much the exports would cost measured in million BTUs (the sector’s unit of measurement), or with differentiation if it is an import from Bolivia or LNG ships.
Imports would have been US $ 9.6 billion, according to official projections, while now they will drop to US $ 4 billion. Clarion He asked officials for details about how that savings is made up, with some basic ideas, but they declined to report it.
The Government took as the stage to make its projections the gas production of the last months. Since April, all cifras are affected by Covid-19. In July – which is usually a peak month for winter– there was less production than in January, as a consequence of the pandemic. YPF is 27% below its gas production. Although these are anomalies, the Ministry of Energy used this scenario to make its estimates.
Gas distributors they will have to pay between US $ 2 and US $ 2.50 for gas that they buy. The difference will be paid by the State. With current rates, gas distributors say they cannot afford their costs. Metrogas, which depends on YPF, is not paying gas for the last three months.
Although the Government promises a path of rate correction, the Enargas (regulator) boasts that there is a delay of 86%. The increase would fall on the higher income sectors, as promised by the Executive Power. According to specialists, to reach that 86% pending, the increase would have to reach, at least, all those who do not have a social rate.
The Government intends to clear the path of fear of gas imports. In the industry they are not sure what will be avoided
“It is good that there is an advertisement,” says Juan Bosch, from Sadesa. “The functioning of the gas market it is not exactly that of a market. One third, the industrial one, is paid daily, with the correct exchange rate, and is regularized. Another third, the gas used for electricity generation, is sometimes paid normal and other times in arrears, and with a variable exchange rate. The last third are the distributors, who pay in arrears, and with an exchange rate that is not current, “he graphs.
“Something had to be done immediately about unconventional gas, because it has a very rapid decline in price, much more than unconventional gas,” he says.
“Al ad is missing some points. The price of US $ 3.70 per million BTU was communicated by officials to journalists, but is not in any regulation. You also have to see the situation of the debts with different companies, because the support of all is needed for this initiative, “he explains.
The price in dollars that the government will pay could be affected by a devaluation of the peso. The Executive Branch would have to orchestrate some mechanism of bonds tied to the exchange rate to generate confidence in investors.
In the drafts that circulated among businessmen, there is a “prize” for those who supply the country. These are export permits, to supply demand from Chile, Brazil and even Uruguay, to be able to sell them during the summer.