The citizens of Aargau elect their government and their parliament next Sunday.
Unless surprised, the Aargau executive of five ministers will remain in male hands. At the Grand Council, environmentalists will have the wind in their sails, while the great UDC will stabilize in the best case. The PBD disappears from the scene.
The electoral campaign remained dismal in Switzerland’s fourth most populous canton. The re-election of the four ministers who stand for re-election therefore seems almost certain. They are Markus Dieth (PDC), Stephan Attiger (PLR), Alex Hürzeler (UDC) and Jean-Pierre Gallati (UDC).
The latter entered the government at the beginning of the year after an additional ballot in December 2019. He succeeded Franziska Roth who had resigned and left his party, the SVP, after being quickly criticized from all sides for his attitude and the management of his department. She only stayed in the post for two and a half years.
Socialist succession, green rivalry
After eleven years of executive, the socialist Urs Hofmann retires. He will be 64 when he cedes his Department of Justice. In the spring, the minister was hospitalized after being infected with the coronavirus. However, he did not suffer from any complications.
To succeed him, the PS has appointed the leader of its parliamentary group Dieter Egli. His chances of being elected are good, unless the Green candidate Christiane Guyer manages to overshadow him. A member of the Zofingue (AG) executive, she is little known, but could benefit from the fight for climate protection. PS and Greens are campaigning together for the government.
A second round is not excluded. Besides the four outgoing bourgeois and the two pink-green candidates, several “exotic” candidacies are, in fact, submitted to the Argovians. Among them are four women from the Socialist Youth.
“Wermuth” or “ecological threat” effect?
In the Grand Council, the UDC represents by far the largest parliamentary group with 45 of the 140 seats in the legislature. In the October 2019 federal election, however, it lost 6.5 points to 31.5%. Maintaining its number of mandates would therefore already be a great victory for the right-wing conservative party.
Second political formation in the canton with 27 seats, the Aargau PS could be among the winners of the election, unless the Greens steal the show. He made progress in the federal elections and the last cantonal elections. In addition, it could benefit from a “Cédric Wermuth effect”. The national adviser is preparing to accede to the co-presidency of the Swiss PS.
The PDC benefits from the withdrawal of the PBD …
Third force, the PLR will undoubtedly have to be satisfied with the status quo (22 mandates) in the best case. He had progressed four years ago, but fell back during the federals.
At the PDC, we are more optimistic. Following the PBD’s decision to no longer present a list and to strengthen the ranks of the Christian Democrats, two of the four bourgeois-democratic deputies joined the PDC group, the latter thus increasing to 19 representatives.
… the Liberals too
Further progress is not certain, however. The withdrawal of the Aargau PBD is likely to benefit the Vert’liberals just as much (currently 7 mandates). Likewise, the progress of the PS is far from certain in the face of the Greens’ appetite (10). As elsewhere, the two environmental groups made progress in Aargau during the federal elections.
Finally, the two parties of the evangelical movement will no doubt share the crumbs. More social and moderate, the PEV (6) should once again emerge largely victorious from this duel against the UDF (2), more traditionalist and rightist, which will have to fight to maintain its presence in parliament.