The eve of the long holiday left a strong exchange rate uncertainty on several fronts. Amid the gale of measures in recent weeks, the results fell short and Expectations were further shattered. A blue dollar that jumped $ 9 to $ 167 condensed that increasingly stale climate.
The concern revolves around three axes. First, the gap that widens (and breaks the 100% barrier), an indication of the expected devaluation. This is the distance from the official dollar, on the one hand, and from the blue (informal market) and the cash with settlement (used in the Stock Market to dollarize via bonds and take the money abroad), on the other.
It remains pending after the first week of validity, to what extent the temporary reduction of withholdings it may feed a little more currency supply, a hitherto meager effect.
And also in the official market it will remain to be seen how the new exchange rule of the Central Bank advances, which it left behind the “uniform devaluation”. A different slippage of the exchange rate with more volatility, more erratic, more unpredictable, but it still leaves the controversy open.
Although analysts agree that the entity will try by all means to avoid an abrupt jump in the exchange rate, there are those who are inclined to think that this “dribbling from Maradona” will lead to the same rate of devaluation as up to now and who anticipate a major acceleration.
In practice, the debut of the new scheme meant a devaluation of 70 cents the first day but then it “nearly froze the daily rally,” dropping from 11 cents to 0.2 cents at the end of the week.
Finally, until nowa little known dollar Bolsa or MEP, a mechanism that allows buying and selling dollars in the Buenos Aires stock market through bonds, was imposed on the agenda on the weekend from the official intention that banks facilitate the possibility of selling through this channel.
The truth is that the official market is dry. Nobody sells at a solidarity price but those who need to get pesos They do it in the blue, a black market.
If popularized, it would strengthen the supply and help deflate the price ($ 143). It would, however, with collateral damage. Out of supply even more of the blue, which is already losing those who made puree: they bought in the solidarity and sold in the informal one.
With the accumulation of restrictions in the super market, only 25% of those who used to buy their quota can now do so. And a good part of those dollars it oiled the blue circuit.
In the run up to the long weekend, the blue dollar rose 9 pesos in one day and closed at $ 167. The gap was 116%, the highest in three decades. So far this month, it increased 20 pesos.
The cash with liqui closed in $ 155. So far this month the blue trend has continued, it rose 6% and is also worth more than double what it cost at the start of 2020. The MEP dollar increased to $ 143.4. In the month it rises 3% and in the year, 98%.
Since the reduction of withholdings came into effect, some US $ 350 million in agricultural dollars entered. But the Central Bank had to go out and sell.
At a time when soybeans are already approaching $ 400 per ton, the price acts as a disincentive. “In the first week, the results are not as expected, but at least the BCRA lowered the rate of currency sales“, summarizes Fernando Marull, of FMyA.
Regarding the exchange rule change, he believes that “the BCRA made this change to begin gradually accelerate the rate of devaluation. We project a rise of 3.5%, when it came at a rate of 2.7% in October “.
On the other hand, until now the official interventions to try to influence the gap with cash with settlement through the sale of bonds. And the exchange gap continued to rise. Why? “It is not only the expectation of greater monetary issuance for the next few months and the failure of the measures. Clearly, raising the parking lot to 15 days for non-resident investors was not free,” says Marull.
It was originally five days. Parking is the time for which the investor must keep the bonds in the portfolio before being able to sell them. “This is what generates you is a very high pressure. There are foreigners who are in stocks and willing to pay any price to leave Argentina “, they explain in the City.