Peru’s economy moderates slowdown and would have fallen 10.1% in August

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Peru's economy moderates slowdown and would have fallen 10.1% in August




File photo. Outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Lima


© Reuters/STRINGER
File photo. Outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Lima


By Maria Cervantes

LIMA, Oct 13 (Reuters) – The Peruvian economy moderates its slowdown and would have fallen 10.1% year-on-year in August, its sixth consecutive month of contraction due to the effects of a coronavirus quarantine, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday .

The projections of seven local and foreign economists consulted fluctuated between a contraction of 8.1% and 15.8% year-on-year. The calculation is based on the median of the estimates, while the average was -10.6%.

The estimate compares with the fall of 11.71% in last July and a growth of 3.58% in August last year.

“Economic activity has continued to recover, but at a slower pace than in previous months. The delay in the start of Phase 4 (of reactivation) has been the main reason,” said Alejandro Castillo, an analyst at Intéligo.

In mid-August, President Martín Vizcarra restored the curfew on Sundays and raised the number of provinces in targeted quarantine due to a re-outbreak of the coronavirus.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (INEI), the production of the mining and hydrocarbons sector decreased by 11.18% in August as a result of the reduction in the production volumes of gold, silver, lead and copper.

Likewise, the fishing sector fell 6.46% in August, due to the lower capture of species of maritime origin. On the other hand, domestic cement consumption grew 1.31% year-on-year, showing a positive record after five months of negative figures.

“Although there has been a continuous improvement in the sectors linked to demand, such as the construction and services sector, the dynamism of the supply sectors, such as agriculture and fishing, has cooled down,” said a report by Phase Consultores.

The INEI will release the August economic growth data on October 15. Below are the projections:

Intellect -08.1

Itaú Unibanco -08.6

Pantheon -09,8

Phase Consultores -10.1

Scotiabank Peru -10.3

BBVA Banco Continental -11.5

Thorne Associates -15,8

MEDIUM -10.1

AVERAGE -10.6

(Report by Maria Cervantes, edited by Marco Aquino)

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