In the most complicated year in automotive history since the post-war period, we see the boom in sales of electric cars. In the first six months of the year – also discounting the pandemic effect – electric-powered cars have grown three times on the market, carving out an 8% share of the total amount of cars sold. A fact that certifies the revolution in progress. The path of electrification has already been mapped out for all manufacturers and will gradually lead to the filing of the internal combustion engine in a horizon that we quantify within 10 years.
Of course there are still some geopolitical bottlenecks to solve. China is positioned upstream of the supply chain and is now identified with an electro-state that ends up greatly reducing the weight of oil in the Middle East. of the 80 million cars that are sold every year in the world, in 2019 only 2.1 million were electric and half were circulating in China. So to lower the price you have to sell many. The problem is that to make them walk you need the battery and you have to deal with the country that is upstream of the supply chain of raw materials necessary to produce it: cobalt, nickel, lithium. China has almost 90% of the world’s fields under concession and also controls the know-how of the industrial process. Beijing has colonized the Congo, which is the largest cobalt producer in the world, and has also snatched ten-year exploitation contracts in South America.
In Europe, electric cars are driven by the Volvo brand with 23%, BMW with 13%, Hyundai-Kia with 11% and Renault with 8%. Sales have been growing steadily since January, which is before and despite COVID-19, and have dealt with and overcome the pandemic better than diesel or gasoline cars. The purchase incentives in Germany, France and other countries, granted in the post-COVID and funded starting from mid-summer are undoubtedly confirming the moment of electric mobility, as demonstrated by the sales of electric vehicles, which in France and Germany exceeded the 10%.
According to the T&E analysis, assuming total achievement of the car manufacturers’ targets, electric car sales are expected to reach 10% by the end of 2020. In 2021 this share will rise to 15% (14% for the EU-27). T&E estimates predict that in 2020 most automakers will have a 10% to 14% share of electric cars, with the exception of Volvo (26%) and FCA-Tesla (16%) at the top end. and PSA (6%), Ford (4%) and Toyota-Mazda (1% -2%) at the low end. Despite the COVID-19 crisis, the total number of electric cars sold in Europe is expected to double from half a million in 2019 to one million in 2020, to reach 1.8 million in 2021. Yet despite these figures, one cannot fail to highlight. the consecutive failures to cut vehicle CO2 emissions in recent years, which actually increased between 2016 and 2019.
In the first half of 2020, SUV sales jumped up to 39%. Half of all plug-in sales to date are “dummy electric” plug-in hybrids that rarely get charged at the electrical outlet and emit 2 to 4 times more CO2 in the real world than shown in lab tests . And, in the face of a surge in plug-in sales, automakers like Daimler and Audi continue to sell thousands of (luxury) cars with emissions well above 200g / km, despite electrification technologies being readily available for these high-end models.