The dollar rush continues to shake the local economy. Despite President Alberto Fernández’s promise that he will not devalue, the market kept turning its back on the peso And the alternative dollars climbed again. This Thursday the blue rose 4 pesos, to $ 171, while the cash with liqui (CCL) reached $ 172 and it took official bodies to sell titles to achieve that it closed at $ 168.
In this framework, the Central Bank, in a new attempt to stop the drain on dollars, proposed “harmonize rates”, according to a statement. On the one hand, it cut the Leliq rate by one point and took it to 36% to discourage bank placements. At the same time, it increased the yields of the one-day passive repos to 30% and to 33% for those of 7 days. And for the general public, it took the minimum yield of fixed terms to 34% for placements of less than 1 million pesos. There were also interventions by official organizations selling bonds to lower financial dollars.
The new measures generated doubts among analysts. “If they continue to lower the rate of the Leliq (the Liquidity Letters that the Central places in the banks to get pesos out of circulation) it will be counterproductive,” said Leonardo Svirsky, of Bull Markets.
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“Today it is not necessary to harmonize the rates. You have to give a shock of expectations which consists of a mainly political signal, but accompanied by a fiscal signal -a budget according to the current situation- and a monetary signal -lower emission-. There isn’t much time, “said Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, an analyst at the Eco Go consultancy.
The announcements from the Central came when the market had already closed higher, which did nothing more than enhance the various exchange gaps. The wholesale dollar traded at $ 77.48. So, the gap with blue reached 119% and with cash with liquid, 117%. The solidarity dollar closed at $ 82.99, four cents above Wednesday’s cut. This brings the savings dollar to $ 137, and places that gap at 74%.
The cash with liqui, the operation to get foreign currency from the country, reached $ 172, so for a while it was located above the blue. However, the price fell to $ 168 for the intervention of official bodies, such as ANSeS or the Central Bank itself, which on occasions like these go out to settle bonds to prevent the price from escaping.
Despite these intermittent interventions, so far this month the CCL has risen 15.8% and has reached an increase of 126% in the year.
nullThe value of the CCL is key for companies that have debts abroad and that do not receive the approval of the Central Bank to acquire these currencies in the official market. With that closed road, the alternatives are to use own funds or pay double in the CCL.
The jump also reached the MEP dollar, the operation that allows foreign currency to be obtained through the Buenos Aires stock market, which increased 3%, to $ 154. This is the transaction that the Government seeks to promote so that it works as a counterweight to the demand for the blue dollar. For this reason, the Central Bank promotes the idea that banks enable homebanking to operate in the MEP, which would simplify the process and bring the retail public closer to this alternative market.
Every upward movement in financial dollars is replicated in the blue. Consequently, the informal dollar has accumulated a rise of 26 pesos since the exchange rate was strengthened on September 16. And since the beginning of the year, blue raised $ 93.
In another turbulent day, the Central finished in the red, with sales of US $ 50 million according to estimates in the market. This happened despite the fact that, timidly, the liquidations of the agro-dollars were rebounding after the drop of three points in the withholdings on exports. On Wednesday, the sector settled US $ 69 million.
With reserves in decline, the Government is running out of gunpowder to contain the dollar. On Wednesday, at the opening of the IDEA Colloquium, President Alberto Fernández promised that he would not devalue or touch dollar deposits. However, the words of the head of the Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, resounded louder in the market’s ears, who warned of the consequences of the increase in the gap between the official and the parallel and called for a credible economic agenda.
In a survey carried out in IDEA, 80% of those consulted believed that the dollar will continue to rise in the next six months. And in off-cuts, the businessmen indicated that the rise in the currency occurs because the Government “has no credibility.”
On the outside the perception is not very different. Debt bonds fell between 1 and 2% on Wall Street, taking country risk to 1,408 basis points, a rise of 0.4% compared to Wednesday. This index, which measures the difference in the rate paid by Argentine securities compared to US Treasury bonds, has been rising for three days. Tied to this, the titles with New York law are having yields that are already around 16%, well above the 12% that was targeted with the debt swap.
Nor were Argentine actions spared from the impact. In New York, ADRs were mixed, although with a majority of losses. The falls reached 5% in the case of YPF.