In Argentina, everyone wants to buy dollars. Many, it is known, to later sell them at the best price. But with the stocks, almost no one sells in an official market that is backward. The almost unfailing destination is blue. At least until now that the Government claims that Argentines pour your dollars into the stock market through homebanking.
Is that sales in the official market passed from US $ 690 million to US $ 18 million in the last year (a 97% drop), while savers selling to make ends meet or make a difference fell from 710,000 to 95,000 (a plunge of 85%).
Assuming the rare case of having access to the monthly quota, and that the consumption with a card in dollars enables the purchase of the full US $ 200With the Stock Exchange dollar ($ 143) you get $ 1,300 more than with the solidarity ($ 136.5) but with a blue that trades at $ 161 for those who sell, the saver gets $ 4,900 than with the solidarity. The difference between the Stock and the blue is $ 3,600.
The Stock Exchange Dollar, also called MEP, is one of the two mechanisms to get dollars in the market of capitals. The other is cash with settlement, but it also involves turning the currencies abroad ($ 155).
The operation is very simple and requires the use of securities that are listed in dollars and pesos. With dollars you buy a bond in dollars and that same bond is sold but against pesos. This is an instant transaction.
An important point is that they are legal mechanisms and there are no quotas beyond some obstacles to surgery.
The Central Bank has already been paving the way to make it easier for banks to popularize this way of selling dollars: eliminated the five-day “parking” that ruled until two weeks ago.
This “parking” forced investors to buy a bond (in pesos or dollars) and have it in your portfolio at least five days before you can sell it. Given the volatility of the securities, it was impossible to know at what price they were going to be sold against pesos when the time came. The five-day parking is still in force but only for those who want to go from pesos to dollars.
A greater offer in the so-called dollar Bolsa or MEP would allow to remove pressure from the price (which rises 98% so far this year against 30% of the official), but it would be at the cost of further stockout the informal market (many fewer access the quota and therefore end up in the blue), favoring abrupt jumps, that is, giving it more volatility.
Fernando Marull, from FyMA, assured: “If they advance on that side, it is to formalize the financial dollar. It is a smooth and flat unfolding. It has to do with the fall in the official market. This is that people had stopped selling dollars. “
“This measure seeks to recover those dollar sellers who have them but do not want to sell them at the official price. They are looking for a channel where there are only experts selling and who can do it through homebanking. Because it is also drying up on the financial dollar. The proof is that it goes up every day, “he completes.
Gustavo Caamaño, from Consultora Ledesma, states that “if it were to materialize, the main recognition is that nobody sells in the official. Nobody who buys, sells in the official, gap through, largely built given the spread with the country tax and now the 35% advance. No one is going to sell at a loss. ”
“It is the recognition of the failure of that approach. Discourage the purchase, which you did not achieve because everyone continues to buy the same, because with so much uncertainty unfortunately the dollar is never expensive “he adds.
“And the objective would be to lower the pressure on the MEP a little, lower the gap with the officers a little. We do not know exactly what they are looking for, maybe restrictions will come for the impositions. that are attended by the officer. It is a speculation. But it is true that you keep getting an offer from blue and it will gain more volatility. You decompress one at the cost of adding more volatility to the other, “he said.
In the preview of the long weekend, the blue dollar jumped: it increased 9 pesos in one day and closed at $ 167. The exchange gap was 116%, the highest in three decades. So far this month the informal dollar has increased 20 pesos.
Did agricultural sales go up? A variable on which the Central Bank was betting to deflate the gap and re-accumulate reserves.
“Agriculture lowered the settlement to US $ 300 million in 5 days, but we believe it can be explained by the strength that soy continues to show in Chicago, which encourages you to sell less. With soybeans in Chicago rising and the exchange gap increasing, the incentives seem to align with the producer not selling, even though withholdings drop 3 points and the official dollar rise a little, “says Marull.