A month after the debut of the reloaded stocks, the official plan failed because it failed to stop the drain on Central Bank reserves, nor stabilize the exchange gap, that exceeds more than 100%. The fall in reserves was US $ 1,709 million. For the market, the measures such as the reduction in withholdings on soy exports, and the change in the intervention strategy of the BCRA, are correct, but they arrive “late”, and they are “Insufficient”.
The Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman, anticipated that “What is going to take place is a change of direction in terms of capital controls policy for cash with liquidation.” He acknowledged that “control after control, the CCL market has been shrinking, it became more volatile, and the price rose.”
“We are going to move in the direction of facilitating these types of operations”, Indian. “We are committed to making it evolve hand in hand with prices,” he said about the official dollar and ruled out a devaluation. “Argentina is not a low-income country but a middle-income country”, He said.
Analysts estimate that the “parking” (the term that investors must have in their portfolio the bonds they buy before they can sell them) could be reduced. With the reinforced stocks, a 5-day parking was established, in some cases, and 15 days in others (for the transfer of securities to foreign accounts).
Parking. Fernando Baer, of Quantun Finanzas, and the analyst Gustavo Ber estimated that “they could reduce parking and allow some financial operations to go through that market.” The financier Christian Buteler He advocated “removing parking for both purchase and sale, so there would be more operations, and it could probably lower the price.”
The fall in reserves since the stocks were reinforced a month ago was US $ 1,709 million
For Guido Lorenzo, “There will be a reversal in the parking lot, which was what made the CCL explode, foreign investors for 15 days gives a feeling that they are not letting them get away with the money, and it makes them want to leave at any price”.
Settlement. An operator commented to PROFILE that “a rumor is that they were going to allow exporters to liquidate part of the currencies through the CCL market, so that they do not have to liquidate everything at the official exchange rate, there was talk of 30%, that would help to lower the gap ”.
For his part, Norberto Sosa pointed out that “perhaps they are advancing with the banks’ proposal to operate the MEP dollar more easily via home banking, they say that there are entities that already have the systems prepared.”
In tune, Martín Vauthier, from Eco Go, considered that “it would be necessary to return to the situation of a few months ago where the MEP and the CCL had free operations, they were a dollarization alternative for families and companies, there are people who today are prohibited from selling dollars in these markets if He bought a savings dollar in the last 90 days, it is important to eliminate the restrictions, it can help the offer to return something, and it would be positive for expectations ”.
Tax and alternative measures should be added to exchange rate measures, analysts say
“I would go in the right direction but if the only measures to come are exchange regulations, the magnitude is scarce, if there is no strong fiscal signal that closes the peso issuance tap in the coming months, a lasting stabilization will not be achieved. ”He warned.
Vauthier objected that the dropper ads “lose effectiveness”, alluding to the measures adopted by the BCRA on Thursday. Among others, the rate for fixed terms in pesos at 30 days of amounts lower than $ 1 million rose 1 point to 34%, and a rule related to the information regime on imports was issued.
Matias Rajnerman, from Ecolatina, assessed that the rate hike “comes late, when liquid reserves are at a critical level, at these pressure levels, one percentage point is too limited to change the decisions of savers.
Regarding the import regulations, Lorenzo speculated that “it may imply less access, that they do not authorize operations.” In the BCRA, they clarified that “before, operations for more than US $ 500 thousand were reported, but that did not allow a statistic of lower movements, now it is requested that they be reported from 50 thousand, but it does not affect the operation.”