The probability of contracting coronavirus has nothing to do with how old you are, a recent study warns
But age has nothing to do with your chances of getting the virus, according has confirmed a team of Japanese researchers.
The study was based on data from three countries —Italy, Spain and Japan— with different incidence but with well-collected data: as of May 29, Italy had confirmed 382.3 per 100,000 inhabitants; Spain, 507.2, and Japan, only 13.2.
The researchers took into account the age distribution of mortality, as well as the reproduction rate (R0), which reveals how many people are infected from a single infected. Although mortality in the different age groups had been similar in the 3 countries, the researchers did point out the different reproduction rates.
To understand this difference, the group developed a mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics, levels of restriction in the 3 countries and the estimated level of contact between people, that is, the different factors that affect the reproduction rate.
By analyzing the resulting data, the researchers found that susceptibility to infection does not change according to age, but it does affect the severity of the disease already the mortality derived from it.
“Although we cannot 100% reject the dependence of age on the susceptibility of infection, our results suggest that it does not depend to a great extent on this factor, but that the influence of age on severity contributes greatly to the distribution of mortality, “the scientists say in the article.
However, the team concludes that more data is needed to determine the susceptibility of contagion in different age groups in a more concrete way, which is difficult to investigate and requires a large-scale study.
13 Oct 2020 18:45h.