The hottest week that the exchange market went through will lead to new official measures, which will try to calm dollar prices in the alternative market. What is coming, without a fixed date but imminent, goes through moving towards a partial exchange rate split and a new rise in interest rates-
The interest rate thing is simple: they will seek to guarantee savers positive real returns for their investments in pesos, and so that those who take loans also know that they are borrowing at positive real rates, that is, so that they do not take cheap pesos to finance the purchase of foreign currency. Decisions are being cooked, it is said that in a coordinated way, between the technicians of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy.
But undoubtedly the most important of the measures, according to government sources, is that the Central Bank will promote a partial unfolding of the foreign exchange market. Partial and limited, because what will be sought that savers who have their dollars in banks They can sell them at the price of the so-called “dollar Stock market”, which this Friday closed at $143. A type of change that is well above the official dollar retail ($ 82) and the tourism dollar ($ 136, including taxes), although below the blue ($ 167) and the Cash with Liqui ($ 155)
This operation is well known by savers and investors used to stock market operations, but unknown to the general public. It is a two-step transaction: with the dollars from the savings account, a bond in dollars is bought and that same bond is sold instantly but against pesos. In addition, it will be ensured that the dollars do not pass through the bank, so that it does not impact their general exchange position.
This Friday, the operation gave this result: a bond was bought AL30 (arising from the debt swap) in $ 44.73 and sold it in 6.415 pesos. The result of that transaction is that a person ended up selling every dollar that he had in savings account in $ 143,41 pesos.
The Central Bank has already taken a first step to oil this mechanism: it eliminated the “parking” of five days that governed until two weeks ago for those who wanted to sell dollars in the Stock Market. This parking scared investors and savers because it forced them to buy a bond (in pesos or dollars) and have it in your portfolio for at least five days before you can sell it. In practice, it was not known at what price dollars were being bought or sold. Faced with the uncertainty, the volume of operations fell, and when there is a lack of liquidity, the buying and selling points separate.
The five-day parking is still valid, but only for those who want to go from pesos to dollars. It is obvious: they want to make it easier for people to sell their dollars, but to complicate those who want to get dollars.
The “dollar stock market” operation is very popular in the brokerage agencies (Alycs) but the Central wants banks to massify it and if possible make it accessible from home banking, as to really make it available to the banked public.
The intention is clear. If ordinary people have the chance, one by one on your computer or your cell phone, from selling dollars at a much higher value than the official one, you may be tempted by the possibility of Take advantage of the very high purchasing power that a dollar has today in Argentina. The next thing, that it is launched to buy construction materials or other consumption that impacts on the economic activity as a whole. In short, an official incentive to “Break the joint.”
In fact, the Central Bank’s obsession is to convince savers to bring out the day, voluntarily, of course, those close to $ 200 billion that Argentines have kept in banks, safe deposit boxes or other shelter.
The truth is that there is the paradox that Argentina (or a part of it, to be fair) is “Embuchada” of dollars, but that contrasts with the alarming lack of foreign exchange suffered by the Government, which sees its reserves fall and at the same time has closed access to the debt market, because today, even after having made a total restructuring of its debt in dollars, you should pay a 14% fee to borrow dollars. Impossible and unsustainable.
The Government’s diagnosis is that in Argentina there will be a shortage of dollars until the country reaches export goods and services for no less than $ 100 billion. Officials are convinced that until that happens, there will be restrictions on the purchase of dollars. “Today we are missing $ 30 billion, with or without a pandemic. In a normal year imports should be for 60,000 million dollars. We will not have them until exports take off ”, they say in the economic team.
For this reason, soybeans are close to 400 dollars a ton It is experienced as a great relief by the Government. But it is not enough. The officials are also excited about the moment, they hope that it will be close, that borders open and Argentina, very cheap in dollars, receives tourists from other countries who will come to sweep away their shopping tours.
A sad consolation, Know that Argentina, in 2020 or 2021, is the cheap exit option for foreigners. The Government sees it as a possibility of take-off.