“We reverse the route or at the end of October we find ourselves with 1,500 patients in intensive care and 12 thousand hospitalized”


″ “Reverse course or it will be worse in March. The numbers say it ”. Enrico Bucci, Professor of Biology at Temple University in Philadelphia, has been following the evolution of the pandemic from the beginning, studying the emergency numbers and monitoring ongoing research in laboratories around the world to arrive at a therapy or an anti vaccine. -Covid. In an interview with Republic he says: “The only reliable data are those relating to hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and deaths”.

What do these data tell us?

“That the situation worsened between the 4th and 5th of October. At that moment, the curves of admissions and intensive care admissions changed slope and began to rise again in a worrying way. If we project the current trend to the end of October, we will find ourselves with 1,500 hospitalized in intensive care and 12 thousand Covid patients in ordinary wards. But beware: it is a projection of what would happen if the trend remained the current “.

The problem is that it did not manage to contain the spread of the virus as it had until 4 October.

“By projecting those less steep curves at the end of the month, we see that on October 30th we would have had 510 cases in intensive care and about 6,000 hospitalized symptomatic (…). The “free all” of the summer has restarted the circulation of the virus that had been stopped with the spring lockdown: the numbers growing in August clearly stated it. Then on September 16 we saw a slowdown, probably due to the return from holidays and a reduction in contacts. But from 4-5 October the curves started to rise again in a worrying way ”.

Read the entire interview on Repubblic


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