Why can 2021 be the year of the electric car take off?

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Why can 2021 be the year of the electric car take off?


Before 2020 started its engines, the forecasts pointed to a turning point for sustainable mobility and, specifically, for the electric cars. At the end of 2019, sales grew and this trend had its replica in the first months of this year … until it appeared in coronavirus and truncated that trajectory. Now that the industry is fully into a long recovery, we wonder why 2021 can be the year of the electric car take off.

In addition to the regulations that the European Union introduced at the beginning of 2020 and with which the maximum level of carbon dioxide (CO2) was set at 95 g / km of emissions that the brands could not surpass, there are other reasons to think that, if all goes well, in 2021 electric cars will take off definitively: there will be more models, cheaper, technology will have advanced (even) more and we may see again an aid plan such as those currently in force.

More than 200 models

Forecasts suggest that in 2021 the supply of electrified vehicles will include more than 220 models between hybrids, microhybrids, plug-in hybrids and electrical. Drivers will therefore have more options to choose from, something that will improve over time: in 2025 325 models will be reached and a year later it is estimated that demand will reach 50% of new vehicles that are registered in Europe. A figure that will grow to 70% in 2030.

And the best support for all these numbers are the plans of the brands. Practically all of them already have sustainable models and their commitment to electric cars is so strong that many of them have created your own lines: Mercedes, Volkswagen

Autonomy grows

The first electric cars had a range that ranged from 80 to 120 kilometers in the best of cases. However, technology is advancing by leaps and bounds and makes it possible to improve these figures by increasing the ranges of electrical independence. According to the database of the Institute for Energy Diversification and Saving (IDEA), today the estimated average autonomy of electric vehicles sold in the market is 300 kilometers (according to the official figures of the WLTP Cycle). A figure that will grow over time to exceed 500 kilometers, that is, a range similar to that offered, on average, by a car with a combustion engine.

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They will not be the only numbers related to electricity that experience an improvement as a result of the advances. Recharge times are expected to be reduced little by little, although here the infrastructure of stations would come into play, which in Spain is still insufficient: currently there are 8,000 points, the lowest figure in Europe, which authorities hope to improve by installing 100,000 public chargers in a three-year period (2020-2023).

Cheaper

The difference in prices between electric and combustion cars is reducing year after year due to the economy of scale and, above all, to the batteries. This component represents 30% of the manufacturing cost of a model of this type, a cost borne by the driver. Therefore, if the brands shape smaller models … it would be a way to offer more affordable prices.

At the same time, improvements to the battery terrain will also influence that final amount. We don’t stop talking about prices. For the electric figures to be comparable to those of a diesel or gasoline car, the cost of manufacturing the batteries must be 105 euros per kWh capacity: today batteries range between 30-40 kWh for small and medium-sized models and 70-100 kWh for sedans and SUVs.

Finally, the regulations They will also have some influence in this regard: as these become more restrictive in terms of emissions, combustion vehicles will become progressively more expensive.

Purchase aids

Without a doubt, 2020 has been a prolific year in what helps for the buying new cars it means. He Scrappage scheme, With a budget of 250 million euros, it arrived at the beginning of summer and will be in force until the last day of 2020.

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He Plan Moves II, however, it is valid for one year from activation by each autonomous community or until the budget is exhausted. It is the autonomous communities that manage these specific subsidies for less polluting cars and most of them activated them in mid-September. Therefore, drivers will be able to benefit from this aid until September 2021… as long as their part of the global budget of 100 million euros has not been completed.

Of course, we must bear in mind that as the number of electric cars increases … public aid will decrease. However, by then it is expected that there will be a large market for second hand of electric cars.

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