The fate of car manufacturers is played out in the way in which management makes the transition from the combustion engine to electric batteries, KPMG says. By 2030, the overcapacity of traditional cars will equal 200 assembly plants made redundant.
Automakers are investing more than $ 200 billion in the electric car segment, more than what NASA spent at the time to send the first man to the moon, analysts say. KPMG. But there is no point in investing, you have to start on time.
The consultancy group has just presented a new research paper soberly titled Place Your Billion-Dollar Bets Wisely in which estimates predict that battery-powered vehicles will represent 24-37% of the global market by 2030.
‘A massive structural change. New dominant positions will be built, and old empires are in danger of collapsing. The stakes could not be higher, ‘says KPMG.
Alarmist, the study indicates that the fate of the auto industry rests on the good management shown by the leaders of the various groups in order to balance the rise in power of the electric simultaneously with the decline of the fossil fuel engines. If in the next nine years electric vehicles reach a 30% market share, critical overcapacity will follow: some 40 million gasoline / diesel vehicles or the equivalent of 200 useless factories per year.
By relying too early and too heavily on electricity, manufacturers risk finding themselves without the vehicles they need to continue making a profit. But falling behind on the electric curve could spell the end of latecomers who cling too long to traditional fuels, assures KPMG.
‘Getting the timing wrong is very risky. If you get the wrong five years, you risk going bankrupt. There could be big crashes, ‘study co-author Gary Silberg, head of automotive practice at KPMG US, told Bloomberg news agency.
The study predicts that one or two of the world’s leading automakers will fail to make this technological shift and cease to exist within the next decade.
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- The hidden (and exorbitant) cost of the electric car boom
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