A report from the Mediterranean Foundation warned that in the last decade, that is, between the years 2011 and 2021, the number of people who are unemployed grew by 800,000.
In addition to the only thing that expanded was public employment, with some 600 thousand additional positions, and self-employment with a growth of 1.5 million.
Argentina is going through sharp deterioration in the creation of “quality employment”The IERAL Institute report warned and highlighted that between March 2012 and the same month in 2021, the number of state employees grew steadily, with a cumulative 24.4%.
In return, andhe private salaried employment peaked in April 2018 with 6.3 million workers.
Then a process of persistent destruction of private employment began, which was exacerbated in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. In this sense, the number of private jobs lost in the last three years alone is about 440,000.
On the other hand, the report warned about a negative impact scenario on the labor and pension scheme: “pension moratoriums return, after a decade with a significant increase in beneficiaries of social security and a marked deterioration in the creation of quality employment”.
Between 2011 and 2021, the number of people who are unemployed grew by 800,000.
In the “last stagflationary decade, the Argentine economy exhibits very little encouraging figures in the labor market,” the foundation warned.
“In 2021 there are 800,000 more unemployed persons than in 2011, despite the fact that since then almost 2.5 million people have passed into the inactive category,” the institute said.
In the last 10 years, “the only thing that expanded was public employment (around 600,000 additional jobs) and self-employment (+1.5 million), since 136,000 formal salaried jobs and 425,000 informal jobs have been destroyed.”
“At the same time that the quality of employment deteriorated, the number of social assistance programs increased notably, in the case of the Universal Child Allowance and the Universal Allowance for Pregnancy (AUH and AUE), which currently reach 4.4 million beneficiaries, “the report specified.
“An analogous phenomenon occurred in the pension plan, making for 2016 the beneficiaries of moratoriums outnumbering those who had made the contributions required by law,” they pointed out.
Regarding the new moratorium “Program for the Recognition of Contributions for Care Tasks”, aimed at women who do not have sufficient contributions to do so, the document questioned: “It is estimated that 155 thousand people could access immediately, but instead of channeling the benefit through the PUAM, it has been decided to resort again to the recognition of tax benefits, which equal the people who contributed the 30 years required the law with those who did not do it or did it only partially “.
In this sense, according to the Institute’s own estimates, the tax savings that would have meant applying a system such as the PUAM, instead of the generalized moratoriums implemented since 2005, is: “The treasury would have saved an annual average of 122,887 million between 2006 and 2020 , or 0.45% of GDP in 2020, “he indicated.
While the accumulated savings in 15 years would amount to the equivalent of 6.8% of GDP in 2020.
On the other hand, since October 2020, the economic policy “It goes between the intentions of Minister Martín Guzmán to improve fiscal accounts, to avoid monetary and inflation overflows in the future, and increase the probability of an agreement with the IMF, on the one hand, and pressure from the government’s political wing, on the one hand. other”.
“The June numbers still play in Guzmán’s favor, in the sense that the year-on-year increase in resources (90%) far exceeds inflation (50%), and this clearly exceeds the increase in spending (40%)” , they analyzed.
However, they warn that June “is the month in which signs of a change in trend begin to be detected, particularly on the spending side”.
In most cases it is observed that in June expenditures increase more or fall less than in previous months, standing out in this sense the items of Personnel, Retirements, Other Social Benefits, Economic Subsidies and Current and capital transfers to the provinces.
“If the typical fiscal seasonality of previous years were to be repeated in the second semester, at the end of 2021 there should be a primary deficit of 1.6% of GDP, well below the 4.2% budgeted for this year and 6.5% % observed in 2020 “, they indicated.
“If this happened, it would be a considerable improvement in the fiscal situation, which would pave the way for an agreement with the IMF”they concluded.
This scenario “is faced with the fact that mid-term elections will be held in September and November, which could induce higher expenditures, some already announced, and which begin to impact from July, after the first signs registered in June.”
In that case, he warns that 2022 “will require adjustments and it will be difficult to bring down the inflation rate.”