The blue dollar operates stable and all eyes are on what happens with stock prices

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The blue dollar trades this Wednesday estble and is achieved around the $176 for the selling point in the caves of the Buenos Aires City.

On Monday it had traded at $ 177, the price is the highest this year. It must be remembered that the historical maximum was registered on October 23, 2020, when the unofficial dollar touched the $195.

In this context, investors carefully watch the evolution of the stock prices of the dollar.

For example, the stock exchange dollar, the MEP, is around $ 166.50.

Meanwhile, the dollar counted with clearance It is trading at $ 167.32.

As noted above, the blue dollar is offered to $176 in caves in downtown Buenos Aires.

In recent days the Central Bank had managed to buy dollars in the market

© Provided by iProfesional
In recent days the Central Bank had managed to buy dollars in the market

In recent days the Central Bank had managed to buy dollars in the market

For its part, in the wholesale segment, the US currency starts the round at $ 96.16, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).

In the official retail market, the North American currency operates at an average of $ 101.62 in agencies and banks of the city of Buenos Aires, so the saving dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAÍS tax plus 35% of the income tax, sells for around $ 167.67.

According to the usual survey carried out by the central bank Among the main financial entities that operated in the City, these are the sale prices of the official retail dollar:

  • Galicia: $ 101.90
  • HSBC: $101,30
  • Nation: $ 101.25
  • Santander: $101
  • Itaú: $101.50
  • City: $ 101.25

The blue dollar, which is sold at $ 176, does not have an official price, but its value leaves the average price in places of unofficial exchange.

For his part, Argentina country risk it stands at 1,594 basis points.

Why did the blue dollar rise but did not explode ?: this was done by the BCRA

The Government passed the test on the first day of the new restrictions in the financial dollar market. By dint of interventions, this time from the start of the wheel (he always did it in the last hour of operations), the central bank was able to placate the rise in cash with liqui (CCL) and the MEP dollar. Even the one that had escaped the most, that is, the blue that was paid up to $ 180, closed at $ 176 (3 pesos more expensive than last week).

The official idea was to chase away the ghosts of the spring of last year when the greater restrictions of the BCRA triggered the prices of dollars. The CCL was worth $ 180 on October 22 (up from $ 130 five weeks earlier) and the blue had reached almost $ 200.

Now, with the “learning curve” already incorporated and the “fire power” that the 15,000 million nominal in bonds give it to intervene (something like US $ 5,000 million in market value), the BCRA went out to the field early.

The operation is the same as always: it sells bonds against pesos and then uses part of the balance in dollars in the MULC to buy back part of the bonds. Thus, the Central operates to lower the market temperature.

The BCRA came out to intervene early in the CCL market to lower prices

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The BCRA intervened early in the CCL market to lower prices

The BCRA intervened early in the CCL market to lower prices

Using the power of fire

Although among professional economists it is known that the BCRA has room for maneuver to intervene, what worries is that in the future the era of fat cows will no longer be there.

The BCRA began operating in the CCL in November of last year to reduce the exchange rate gap. It sold, at the end of that month, about $ 150 million. Then it fluctuated but in January of this year he had to release more than $ 400 million. The following months were between $ 100 million and $ 200 million, depending on the case. And in May of this year the selling balance exceeded US $ 1.2 billion in the accumulated since November.

Now, with the idea of ​​making the most of the dollars that the BCRA was buying, it began to take its foot off the gas in its interventions. Something that only recently began to oil again due to the rise in financial dollars. In the market it is believed that in the last two weeks, the BCRA sold more than US $ 200 million in total. Hence, on Saturday night, while the country was all “Argentina versus Brazil,” the CNV and the BCRA came out with more restrictive regulations.

The key is that the Central you couldn’t afford to keep losing at a rate of $ 100 million per week to keep the CCL at bay.

If it has to, it will, but the idea is for the constraint to act as an exemplary policy. Of course, in between, the government will have to make sure it has the necessary dollars to intervene if necessary. On Monday the money table of the BCRA bought US $ 200 million in the official market. It was an atypical day because due to the holiday on Friday (July 9), 2 trading days were added: thus the volume was US $ 470 million and the BCRA took all the “excess” of foreign currency.

The Government knows that the coming months will be difficult to keep the dollar at bay

© Provided by iProfesional
The Government knows that the coming months will be difficult to keep the dollar at bay

The Government knows that the coming months will be difficult to keep the dollar at bay

Palliative and greater forward pressure

With 50% inflation, the foreign exchange market is like having a soapy stick. Because alternative dollars travel at the rate of inflation, they have an unstable market. In addition, the reserves that the BCRA collected (something like US $ 7,000 million) is a ceiling, they will tend to fall because they will have to sell dollars in cash with settlement and pay agencies and others, “he said. Pablo Goldin, director de Macroview.

And he adds that “with such a fair box of dollars, with the tightest trade surplus, we are going to see how the accounts are done.” “What governs is how many dollars you have in the box; and the perspective is that you have less and less. In the exchange market, the BCRA is going to have to turn off the taps,” said Goldin.

In terms of the measures applied by the Government to control the gap, Javier Timerman, partner of AdCap, affirmed that they are palliative measures that “will never solve the problem”.

If there is a supply and demand problem, the restrictions are of little use; they are like aspirin. In a particular moment, they help you get out of a situation, but they create another problem.. So I think the government implemented them to avoid a currency crisis that has such an impact at the political level. It is part of what is being done, which is not the solution, but which avoids a major crisis in the short term, “he emphasized.

For now the Government won the first round. It will be necessary to see if it can keep the alternative dollars under control and, not least, at what cost.

Dollars will no longer come so easily from the trade balance and the BCRA could begin to “eat” the net reserve cushion that it was able to generate in the days of fat cows. And there is still the dollarization typical of pre-electoral processes. Too much uncertainty still with the dollar and the thousand battles yet to be deciphered.


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